World Cup 2026 AI Predictions
AI-computed win probabilities for all 48 teams, combining chemistry index, form analysis, FIFA ranking, and intelligence signals updated daily.
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Argentina
FIFA {rank} #4 · CONMEBOLSpain
FIFA {rank} #2 · UEFAFrance
FIFA {rank} #1 · UEFAGermany
FIFA {rank} #3 · UEFAEngland
FIFA {rank} #5 · UEFAAll 48 Teams
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Methodology
FIFA Ranking (40%)
Why 40%? It's the only input with 30 years of out-of-sample predictive value. We anchor to it, then beat it on the other 60%.
Chemistry Index (30%)
Squad cohesion the ranking ignores: shared minutes, club partnerships, and tactical familiarity. The biggest single edge over bookmaker consensus.
Morale Score (15%)
Recent results, momentum, and locker-room signals. Captures hot streaks the FIFA ranking smooths out — and cold ones the market takes too long to price.
Stability & Familiarity (15%)
Coaching tenure and squad continuity. Tournament football punishes new managers and rebuilt rosters; this weighting catches the contenders quietly already in trouble.