Kurzfassung – Wer ist besser, Iran oder Italy?
Italy are favored over Iran at the 2026 World Cup, with our AI model projecting a 44% win probability for Italy versus 39% for Iran (and 17% for a draw). The edge is driven primarily by Italy's higher squad chemistry, though Iran remain capable of an upset on tournament form.
Das Fazit
This is an extremely tight matchup. Both Iran and Italy are evenly matched across key metrics, making this one of the most unpredictable potential encounters at the 2026 World Cup. Tactical execution and individual moments of brilliance will likely decide the outcome.
Zentrale Unterschiede: Iran vs Italy
- •FIFA Ranking: Italy sit 11 places higher on the FIFA ranking (#9 vs #20).
- •Squad Chemistry: Squad chemistry is essentially tied (Iran 73, Italy 74).
- •Average Squad Rating: Italy carry the higher average player rating (7 vs 6.6).
- •International Experience: Iran bring more combined caps to the squad (1208 vs 632).
- •World Cup Titles: Italy have won 4 World Cups; Iran have 0.
Wer gewinnt?
Unser KI-Modell gewichtet Form, Kaderqualität und mannschaftliche Geschlossenheit, um den wahrscheinlichsten Ausgang vorherzusagen.
So schneiden sie ab
Ein direkter Vergleich der entscheidenden Faktoren für diese Paarung. Höher ist besser (außer beim FIFA-Ranking, wo niedriger = stärker).
Was bedeuten diese Werte?
- Chemistry — Wie gut die Mannschaft als Einheit zusammenspielt. Denk an das Tiki-Taka des FC Barcelona im Vergleich zu einer zufällig zusammengewürfelten All-Star-Truppe.
- Vertrautheit — Wie lange diese Spieler schon zusammenspielen. Kader mit jahrelanger gemeinsamer Erfahrung lesen die Laufwege der anderen instinktiv.
- Stabilität — Wie beständig taktisches System und Aufstellung waren. Häufige Trainerwechsel und Formationsexperimente schaden diesem Wert.
- Moral — Das aktuelle Selbstvertrauen und Momentum des Kaders. Jüngste Siege, Rückhalt der Fans und positive Medienstimmung tragen alle dazu bei.
Iran
Italy
Kadervergleich
Zentrale Spieler-Duelle
WM-Historie
Iran vs Italy – Häufig gestellte Fragen
Who is favored to win between Iran and Italy at the 2026 World Cup?
Italy are favored, with a 44% projected win probability versus 39% for Iran and a 17% chance of a draw. The edge comes from a combination of FIFA ranking, squad chemistry, and current form.
What are Iran's strongest attributes versus Italy?
Iran lead Italy in team familiarity, tactical stability. Italy, in turn, have the edge in squad chemistry, squad morale.
What is the World Cup history of Iran versus Italy?
Iran have appeared in 6 FIFA World Cups and won 0 titles; Italy have appeared in 18 World Cups and won 4 titles. Iran's best finish is Group stage; Italy's best finish is Winners.
Have Iran and Italy faced each other in major international competition?
Iran and Italy have not been frequent opponents in our tracked head-to-head record set, which focuses on the most consequential international rivalries. The 2026 World Cup could provide one of their first high-stakes meetings on the global stage.
Which players will define the Iran versus Italy match?
Mehdi Taremi (Iran, Inter Milan, rated 7.5/10) and Federico Chiesa (Italy, Liverpool, rated 7.3/10) are the standout attack players in this fixture. Their individual duel — and the ability of each side's defense to contain the other's top attacker — is likely to determine the outcome.
Which squad has more international experience: Iran or Italy?
Iran carry the more experienced squad, with 1208 combined senior caps versus 632 for Italy. Average squad rating is 6.6 for Iran and 7 for Italy.