TL;DR — Who's Better, Italy or Ivory Coast?
Italy are favored over Ivory Coast at the 2026 World Cup, with our AI model projecting a 47% win probability for Italy versus 38% for Ivory Coast (and 15% for a draw). The edge is driven primarily by Italy's stronger FIFA ranking, though Ivory Coast remain capable of an upset on tournament form.
The Bottom Line
Italy hold a slight edge over Ivory Coast, driven primarily by their higher FIFA ranking. However, Ivory Coast possess the quality to cause an upset, particularly if their high morale translates into a disciplined performance on the day.
Key Differences: Italy vs Ivory Coast
- •FIFA Ranking: Italy sit 29 places higher on the FIFA ranking (#9 vs #38).
- •Squad Chemistry: Squad chemistry is essentially tied (Italy 74, Ivory Coast 74).
- •Average Squad Rating: Italy carry the higher average player rating (7 vs 6.7).
- •International Experience: Ivory Coast bring more combined caps to the squad (633 vs 632).
- •World Cup Titles: Italy have won 4 World Cups; Ivory Coast have 0.
Who Wins?
Our AI model weighs form, squad quality, and team cohesion to predict the most likely outcome.
How They Compare
A side-by-side look at the key factors that could decide this matchup. Higher is better (except FIFA Ranking, where lower = stronger).
What do these mean?
- Chemistry — How well the squad plays together as a unit. Think Barcelona's tiki-taka vs a random group of all-stars.
- Familiarity — How long these players have been playing together. Squads with years of shared experience read each other's runs instinctively.
- Stability — How consistent the tactical system and lineup have been. Frequent coaching changes and formation experiments hurt this score.
- Morale — The squad's current confidence and momentum. Recent wins, fan support, and media positivity all contribute.
Italy
Ivory Coast
Squad Comparison
Key Player Matchups
World Cup History
Italy vs Ivory Coast — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win between Italy and Ivory Coast at the 2026 World Cup?
Italy are favored, with a 47% projected win probability versus 38% for Ivory Coast and a 15% chance of a draw. The edge comes from a combination of FIFA ranking, squad chemistry, and current form.
What are Italy's strongest attributes versus Ivory Coast?
Italy do not lead Ivory Coast in any of the four chemistry metrics (chemistry, familiarity, stability, morale). Italy will need to rely on individual quality and tactical execution to overcome Ivory Coast's edge in team cohesion.
What is the World Cup history of Italy versus Ivory Coast?
Italy have appeared in 18 FIFA World Cups and won 4 titles; Ivory Coast have appeared in 4 World Cups and won 0 titles. Italy's best finish is Winners; Ivory Coast's best finish is Group stage.
Have Italy and Ivory Coast faced each other in major international competition?
Italy and Ivory Coast have not been frequent opponents in our tracked head-to-head record set, which focuses on the most consequential international rivalries. The 2026 World Cup could provide one of their first high-stakes meetings on the global stage.
Which players will define the Italy versus Ivory Coast match?
Federico Chiesa (Italy, Liverpool, rated 7.3/10) and Simon Adingra (Ivory Coast, Brighton, rated 7.2/10) are the standout attack players in this fixture. Their individual duel — and the ability of each side's defense to contain the other's top attacker — is likely to determine the outcome.
Which squad has more international experience: Italy or Ivory Coast?
Ivory Coast carry the more experienced squad, with 633 combined senior caps versus 632 for Italy. Average squad rating is 7 for Italy and 6.7 for Ivory Coast.