要点 — MexicoとSpain、どちらが上か？
Spain are favored over Mexico at the 2026 World Cup, with our AI model projecting a 46% win probability for Spain versus 39% for Mexico (and 15% for a draw). The edge is driven primarily by Spain's higher squad chemistry, though Mexico remain capable of an upset on tournament form.
結論
Spain hold a slight edge over Mexico, driven primarily by their superior squad chemistry. However, Mexico possess the quality to cause an upset, particularly if their high morale translates into a disciplined performance on the day.
主な違い：Mexico vs Spain
- •FIFA Ranking: Spain sit 13 places higher on the FIFA ranking (#2 vs #15).
- •Squad Chemistry: Spain have stronger squad cohesion (86/100 vs 72/100).
- •Average Squad Rating: The two squads are rated within 0.2 of each other on average (Mexico 6.9, Spain 7.1).
- •International Experience: Mexico bring more combined caps to the squad (939 vs 667).
- •World Cup Titles: Spain have won 1 World Cup; Mexico have 0.
どちらが勝つ？
当社のAIモデルは調子、スカッドの質、チームの結束を加味して、最も可能性の高い結果を予想します。
両者の比較
この対戦を左右しうる主要因を並べて比較します。数値は高いほど良好です（FIFAランキングのみ、低いほど強い）。
これらの意味は？
- 連携 — スカッドがひとつのまとまりとしてどれだけうまく機能するか。バルセロナのティキ・タカと、寄せ集めのオールスター集団との違いを思い浮かべてください。
- 熟練度 — これらの選手が一緒にプレーしてきた期間の長さ。長年の共有経験を持つスカッドは、互いの動き出しを本能的に読み合います。
- 安定性 — 戦術システムと先発がどれだけ一貫しているか。頻繁な監督交代やフォーメーションの試行錯誤はこのスコアを下げます。
- モラル — スカッドの現在の自信と勢い。近年の勝利、サポーターの後押し、メディアの好意的な論調がすべて影響します。
Mexico
Spain
スカッド比較
主要選手の対決
ワールドカップの歴史
Mexico vs Spain — よくある質問
Who is favored to win between Mexico and Spain at the 2026 World Cup?
Spain are favored, with a 46% projected win probability versus 39% for Mexico and a 15% chance of a draw. The edge comes from a combination of FIFA ranking, squad chemistry, and current form.
What are Mexico's strongest attributes versus Spain?
Mexico do not lead Spain in any of the four chemistry metrics (chemistry, familiarity, stability, morale). Mexico will need to rely on individual quality and tactical execution to overcome Spain's edge in team cohesion.
What is the World Cup history of Mexico versus Spain?
Mexico have appeared in 17 FIFA World Cups and won 0 titles; Spain have appeared in 16 World Cups and won 1 title. Mexico's best finish is Quarter-finals; Spain's best finish is Winners.
Have Mexico and Spain faced each other in major international competition?
Mexico and Spain have not been frequent opponents in our tracked head-to-head record set, which focuses on the most consequential international rivalries. The 2026 World Cup could provide one of their first high-stakes meetings on the global stage.
Which players will define the Mexico versus Spain match?
Santiago Giménez (Mexico, Feyenoord, rated 7.5/10) and Lamine Yamal (Spain, Barcelona, rated 8.5/10) are the standout attack players in this fixture. Their individual duel — and the ability of each side's defense to contain the other's top attacker — is likely to determine the outcome.
Which squad has more international experience: Mexico or Spain?
Mexico carry the more experienced squad, with 939 combined senior caps versus 667 for Spain. Average squad rating is 6.9 for Mexico and 7.1 for Spain.