要点 — ItalyとJapan、どちらが上か？
Italy and Japan are nearly inseparable on paper for the 2026 World Cup. Our model gives Japan a slim 40% win probability versus Italy, with a 21% chance of a draw — average squad ratings differ by just 0.1 points. Expect a tight, tactical encounter where in-match decisions and individual quality decide it.
結論
This is an extremely tight matchup. Both Italy and Japan are evenly matched across key metrics, making this one of the most unpredictable potential encounters at the 2026 World Cup. Tactical execution and individual moments of brilliance will likely decide the outcome.
主な違い：Italy vs Japan
- •FIFA Ranking: Italy sit 4 places higher on the FIFA ranking (#9 vs #13).
- •Squad Chemistry: Japan have stronger squad cohesion (82/100 vs 74/100).
- •Average Squad Rating: The two squads are rated within 0.2 of each other on average (Italy 7, Japan 6.9).
- •International Experience: Japan bring more combined caps to the squad (668 vs 632).
- •World Cup Titles: Italy have won 4 World Cups; Japan have 0.
どちらが勝つ？
当社のAIモデルは調子、スカッドの質、チームの結束を加味して、最も可能性の高い結果を予想します。
両者の比較
この対戦を左右しうる主要因を並べて比較します。数値は高いほど良好です（FIFAランキングのみ、低いほど強い）。
これらの意味は？
- 連携 — スカッドがひとつのまとまりとしてどれだけうまく機能するか。バルセロナのティキ・タカと、寄せ集めのオールスター集団との違いを思い浮かべてください。
- 熟練度 — これらの選手が一緒にプレーしてきた期間の長さ。長年の共有経験を持つスカッドは、互いの動き出しを本能的に読み合います。
- 安定性 — 戦術システムと先発がどれだけ一貫しているか。頻繁な監督交代やフォーメーションの試行錯誤はこのスコアを下げます。
- モラル — スカッドの現在の自信と勢い。近年の勝利、サポーターの後押し、メディアの好意的な論調がすべて影響します。
Italy
Japan
スカッド比較
主要選手の対決
ワールドカップの歴史
Italy vs Japan — よくある質問
Who is favored to win between Italy and Japan at the 2026 World Cup?
Italy and Japan are essentially even. Our AI model gives Japan a slight 40% win probability versus 38% for Italy, with a 21% chance of a draw — within the model's noise range.
What are Italy's strongest attributes versus Japan?
Italy do not lead Japan in any of the four chemistry metrics (chemistry, familiarity, stability, morale). Italy will need to rely on individual quality and tactical execution to overcome Japan's edge in team cohesion.
What is the World Cup history of Italy versus Japan?
Italy have appeared in 18 FIFA World Cups and won 4 titles; Japan have appeared in 7 World Cups and won 0 titles. Italy's best finish is Winners; Japan's best finish is Round of 16.
Have Italy and Japan faced each other in major international competition?
Italy and Japan have not been frequent opponents in our tracked head-to-head record set, which focuses on the most consequential international rivalries. The 2026 World Cup could provide one of their first high-stakes meetings on the global stage.
Which players will define the Italy versus Japan match?
Federico Chiesa (Italy, Liverpool, rated 7.3/10) and Takefusa Kubo (Japan, Real Sociedad, rated 7.5/10) are the standout attack players in this fixture. Their individual duel — and the ability of each side's defense to contain the other's top attacker — is likely to determine the outcome.
Which squad has more international experience: Italy or Japan?
Japan carry the more experienced squad, with 668 combined senior caps versus 632 for Italy. Average squad rating is 7 for Italy and 6.9 for Japan.