TL;DR — Who's Better, Iran or Jordan?
Iran are favored over Jordan at the 2026 World Cup, with our AI model projecting a 50% win probability for Iran versus 33% for Jordan (and 17% for a draw). The edge is driven primarily by Iran's higher squad chemistry, though Jordan remain capable of an upset on tournament form.
The Bottom Line
Iran are clear favorites against Jordan based on current form, squad depth, and predictive metrics. Iran's competitive strength and outstanding chemistry give them a significant advantage. Jordan will need a historic performance to overcome the odds.
Key Differences: Iran vs Jordan
- •FIFA Ranking: Iran sit 50 places higher on the FIFA ranking (#20 vs #70).
- •Squad Chemistry: Iran have stronger squad cohesion (73/100 vs 67/100).
- •Average Squad Rating: The two squads are rated within 0.2 of each other on average (Iran 6.6, Jordan 6.5).
- •International Experience: Iran bring more combined caps to the squad (1208 vs 590).
- •World Cup Titles: Neither side has won a World Cup; both are chasing a first title in 2026.
Who Wins?
Our AI model weighs form, squad quality, and team cohesion to predict the most likely outcome.
How They Compare
A side-by-side look at the key factors that could decide this matchup. Higher is better (except FIFA Ranking, where lower = stronger).
What do these mean?
- Chemistry — How well the squad plays together as a unit. Think Barcelona's tiki-taka vs a random group of all-stars.
- Familiarity — How long these players have been playing together. Squads with years of shared experience read each other's runs instinctively.
- Stability — How consistent the tactical system and lineup have been. Frequent coaching changes and formation experiments hurt this score.
- Morale — The squad's current confidence and momentum. Recent wins, fan support, and media positivity all contribute.
Iran
Jordan
Squad Comparison
Key Player Matchups
World Cup History
Iran vs Jordan — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win between Iran and Jordan at the 2026 World Cup?
Iran are favored, with a 50% projected win probability versus 33% for Jordan and a 17% chance of a draw. The edge comes from a combination of FIFA ranking, squad chemistry, and current form.
What are Iran's strongest attributes versus Jordan?
Iran lead Jordan in squad chemistry, team familiarity, tactical stability. Jordan, in turn, have the edge in squad morale.
What is the World Cup history of Iran versus Jordan?
Iran have appeared in 6 FIFA World Cups and won 0 titles; Jordan have appeared in 0 World Cups and won 0 titles. Iran's best finish is Group stage; Jordan's best finish is Debut.
Have Iran and Jordan faced each other in major international competition?
Iran and Jordan have not been frequent opponents in our tracked head-to-head record set, which focuses on the most consequential international rivalries. The 2026 World Cup could provide one of their first high-stakes meetings on the global stage.
Which players will define the Iran versus Jordan match?
Mehdi Taremi (Iran, Inter Milan, rated 7.5/10) and Mousa Al-Tamari (Jordan, Montpellier, rated 7.1/10) are the standout attack players in this fixture. Their individual duel — and the ability of each side's defense to contain the other's top attacker — is likely to determine the outcome.
Which squad has more international experience: Iran or Jordan?
Iran carry the more experienced squad, with 1208 combined senior caps versus 590 for Jordan. Average squad rating is 6.6 for Iran and 6.5 for Jordan.